In case of Hamburg, climatically induced changes have to be combined with other changes, which may result from further modifications of the Elbe estuary (see Section 2). BYL719 order An important facet of these scenarios is the perspective of different time horizons, which will be associated with different geophysical changes. While not quantifiable, it is clear that also the uncertainty of future projections will be diminishing. A scenario for a certain time window constructed with the knowledge of 2030 will be less uncertain than a scenario

for the same time window constructed with the knowledge available in 2010. Natural science is generating knowledge about the sensitivity of coastal processes to natural and human influences and about possible pathways of future developments. However, transforming these insights into Francis Bacon’s knowledge, scientia est potentia = capacity to set something in motion ( Stehr, 2012), needs more than just “good science”. When it comes to decisions, the role of science Vemurafenib cost diminishes, and the responsibility is with stakeholders representing political, economic or social interests. Decisions are not scientific,

but follow power structures, political and economic priorities and societal developments. Scientifically produced decision support systems can support decisions by providing specific sets of information and supply evidence-based decision support. Decisions themselves are in most cases normative and interest driven. When scientific actors try to interact with stakeholders, including media and public at large, they often follow

simplistic worldviews – in particular the “linear model” according to which scientifically constructed knowledge is superior und “true” (van der Sluijs, 2010). Therefore, in this naïve view, science is legitimized in determining what is a “right” or a “wrong” decision. The other model is that of the “empty vessel”, according to which stakeholders and public are simply uneducated and do not understand (like small children). Thus, they need to be taught by scientists. As soon as these so far uneducated people understand the considered system, they will opt for the “right” decision. Philosophy of science informs us that Chlormezanone science is not providing “truth” but “best explanations” for the time being, consistent with empirical evidence and with generally accepted theories (e.g., Fleck, 1980). Attempting falsification is important, because it represents a permanent testing if an explanation is still the “best” for the time being. According to social science models like the linear one or the empty vessel are not realistically describing social reality. Stakeholders hold their own knowledge, which often enough is not really science-based but rooted in cultural constructions or economic or political interests (von Storch and Stehr, 2014).